Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan Donato
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs Donato 47.1% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 81.1%
Defensive zone
Donato 55.5%
Neutral zone
Donato 63.5%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 69.1%
30.9%
69.1%
Pageau
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Pageau
Donato
Last 8: Pageau 3-5 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
Pageau
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Pageau
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pageau
Donato
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
59.3% (715)
46.8% (297)
+12.5%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
41.0% (39)
+27.3%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
100.0% (1)
-40.3%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Pageau shoots right. Donato is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Pageau
Donato
Home
58.1% (418)
45.8% (142)
Away
61.0% (559)
46.7% (195)
By Period
Pageau
Donato
P1
55.3%
49.5%
P2
61.5%
45.7%
P3
61.6%
43.4%
OT
75.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
63.2%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:11 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 09:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:49 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |