Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 74.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 62.1%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.5%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 74.5%
25.5%
74.5%
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
46.0% (250)
+13.4%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
70.6% (17)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
31.8% (22)
+27.9%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +27.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Pageau shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
58.4% (430)
50.3% (175)
Away
61.0% (559)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
55.4%
48.5%
P2
61.8%
45.9%
P3
61.5%
46.5%
OT
75.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |