Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Sam Carrick
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Carrick 54.2% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 81.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 53.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 79.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Pageau
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Pageau
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
55.5% (470)
+3.9%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
66.7% (3)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
50.0% (58)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Pageau is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Pageau shoots right. Carrick is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
Pageau
Carrick
Home
58.4% (430)
58.6% (261)
Away
61.0% (559)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Pageau
Carrick
P1
55.4%
55.9%
P2
61.8%
53.5%
P3
61.5%
55.6%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |