Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Sam Carrick
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Pageau wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Carrick 52.2% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 81.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 63.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 69.1%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Pageau
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Pageau
Carrick
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pageau
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
6
1
Pageau
Carrick
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
4
6
Pageau
Carrick
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,525)
52.2% (2,544)
+3.6%
Power Play
57.0% (1,008)
61.3% (75)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
50.8% (435)
-1.2%
On power play, Carrick has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Pageau is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,739).
Pageau shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Pageau
Carrick
Home
56.3% (6,267)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Pageau
Carrick
P1
54.7%
51.8%
P2
56.3%
52.3%
P3
53.5%
52.6%
OT
54.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:21 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 12:39 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:19 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 09:09 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 08:49 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 02:33 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 02:24 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |