Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tommy Novak
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +19.1% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Novak 42.5% (+19.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 54.9%
Defensive zone
Pageau 87.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 84.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Pageau
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Pageau
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
40.4% (408)
+19.0%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
45.5% (33)
+23.5%
On power play, Pageau has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Pageau shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Pageau
Novak
Home
58.4% (430)
42.0% (212)
Away
61.0% (559)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Pageau
Novak
P1
55.4%
41.9%
P2
61.8%
39.3%
P3
61.5%
42.1%
OT
75.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |