Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tommy Novak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Novak 43.0% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 81.2%
Defensive zone
Pageau 98.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 96.2%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Pageau
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Pageau
Novak
Last 10: Pageau 8-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Pageau
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
6
0
Pageau
Novak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,525)
41.8% (1,568)
+14.0%
Power Play
57.0% (1,008)
51.5% (134)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
50.0% (2)
-0.4%
On even strength, Pageau has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,869).
Pageau shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Pageau
Novak
Home
56.3% (6,267)
45.1% (831)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Pageau
Novak
P1
54.7%
43.7%
P2
56.3%
42.8%
P3
53.5%
41.1%
OT
54.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.9%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 18:23 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 05:18 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |