Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Cates 43.2% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 57.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 57.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.4%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Carter
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carter
Cates
Last 5: Carter 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Carter
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Carter
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
44.1% (2,786)
+9.2%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
42.9% (254)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
34.9% (373)
+11.4%
On power play, Carter has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Carter
Cates
Home
54.7% (5,752)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Carter
Cates
P1
53.6%
44.5%
P2
52.8%
43.7%
P3
53.1%
41.2%
OT
56.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |