Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 63.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 60.1% vs Aho 53.8% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 94.6%
Defensive zone
Aho 67.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 78.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 91.4%
8.6%
91.4%
Carter
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Carter
Aho
Last 5: Carter 0-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Carter
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carter
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
65.6% (262)
51.2% (785)
+14.4%
Power Play
68.3% (63)
63.8% (213)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (99)
57.9% (57)
-7.4%
On even strength, Carter has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carter is 63.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Carter shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Carter
Aho
Home
64.3% (207)
54.9% (548)
Away
60.8% (217)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Carter
Aho
P1
65.3%
52.8%
P2
60.1%
58.9%
P3
63.8%
50.6%
OT
40.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
65.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:57 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |