Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Aho 51.3% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 18-14 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 68.7%
Defensive zone
Carter 62.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 56.3%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Carter
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
18
(32 meetings)
14
18
Carter
Aho
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
Carter
Aho
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
6
5
Carter
Aho
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
6
Carter
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
50.2% (6,646)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
58.9% (1,310)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
46.5% (465)
-0.2%
On even strength, Carter has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Carter
Aho
Home
54.7% (5,752)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Carter
Aho
P1
53.6%
51.1%
P2
52.8%
52.1%
P3
53.1%
50.8%
OT
56.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:57 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:08 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 02:08 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 16:58 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 08:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 12:49 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 04:08 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 1 | 17:40 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |