Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Boqvist on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Boqvist wins 38.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boqvist 37.4% vs Cates 43.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Boqvist leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 52.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 73.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 67.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Boqvist
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Boqvist
Cates
Last 10: Boqvist 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boqvist
4
0
Boqvist
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Boqvist
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Boqvist
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boqvist
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
36.3% (1,095)
44.1% (2,786)
-7.8%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
42.9% (254)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
34.9% (373)
-4.1%
On even strength, Cates has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Boqvist is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Boqvist shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Boqvist
Cates
Home
36.9% (542)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
35.8% (617)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Boqvist
Cates
P1
37.4%
44.5%
P2
35.9%
43.7%
P3
35.9%
41.2%
OT
25.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
36.7%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boqvist
28.0%▼
35.5%
36.3%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Jesper Boqvist |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:15 | Offensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:03 | Neutral | Jesper Boqvist |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 12:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 02:19 | Defensive | Noah Cates |