Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Kotkaniemi wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 48.6% vs Paul 53.6% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 66.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.6%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 54.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (207)
53.7% (354)
-6.4%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
59.0% (61)
+41.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
52.9% (34)
-19.6%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +41.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Home
46.5% (129)
55.1% (216)
Away
50.0% (84)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Paul
P1
51.3%
54.9%
P2
46.1%
54.5%
P3
45.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
48.2%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Nick Paul |