Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Thompson 54.3% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 80.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 69.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 55.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Pavelski
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Pavelski
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Pavelski
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Pavelski
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
55.5% (236)
-3.0%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
60.0% (5)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
56.5% (46)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Thompson is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Thompson
Home
55.0% (391)
53.1% (128)
Away
49.7% (360)
57.9% (159)
By Period
Pavelski
Thompson
P1
50.8%
59.0%
P2
55.0%
55.4%
P3
52.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
56.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 17:57 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 16:58 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |