Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Thompson 52.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 31-23 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 66.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 80.2%
Neutral zone
Thompson 61.5%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Pavelski
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
31
(54 meetings)
23
31
Pavelski
Thompson
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
12
10
Pavelski
Thompson
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
7
11
Pavelski
Thompson
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
4
10
Pavelski
Thompson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
54.1% (5,812)
-0.5%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
54.8% (135)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
47.9% (1,381)
+3.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Thompson is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (2,660).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Thompson
Home
56.4% (5,998)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Pavelski
Thompson
P1
53.5%
53.2%
P2
55.2%
52.9%
P3
53.9%
52.8%
OT
52.3%
47.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 17:57 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 16:58 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 09:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 15:24 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2019 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2019 | 2 | 07:23 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2019 | 2 | 05:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 5, 2018 | 1 | 09:27 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 15:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 03:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 01:59 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2016 | 3 | 19:15 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2016 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |