Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Roy 47.2% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 76.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 58.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 68.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Pavelski
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Pavelski
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
47.5% (617)
+4.0%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
39.6% (53)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
46.4% (97)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Roy is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Roy
Home
53.1% (339)
47.2% (398)
Away
49.2% (356)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Pavelski
Roy
P1
53.8%
48.6%
P2
47.8%
48.8%
P3
50.2%
43.9%
OT
71.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |