Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Roy 48.5% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 90.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 60.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 78.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 86.6%
86.6%
13.4%
Pavelski
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Pavelski
Roy
Last 6: Pavelski 4-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.9% (3,621)
+4.7%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
49.3% (276)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
44.9% (463)
+6.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,152).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Roy
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.5% (2,186)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.4% (2,174)
By Period
Pavelski
Roy
P1
53.5%
51.0%
P2
55.2%
46.1%
P3
53.9%
48.3%
OT
52.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 1 | 13:02 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |