Joe Pavelski vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 47 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 79-61 in 140 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 86.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 85.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 86.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 85.9%
85.9%
14.1%
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
79
-
61
(140 meetings)
79
61
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
29
18
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
47 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
26
19
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
45 total
Neutral Zone
Even
24
24
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
48 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
44.8% (8,775)
+8.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
50.6% (844)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
37.8% (880)
+13.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (3,653).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
56.4% (5,998)
46.5% (5,361)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
42.8% (5,150)
By Period
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
53.5%
45.1%
P2
55.2%
43.9%
P3
53.9%
45.2%
OT
52.3%
43.2%
Final 5 min
54.4%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 16:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:53 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 17:08 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 19:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 02:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 2 | 14:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |