Scouting Report
Joe Veleno holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 50.9% vs Backlund 49.8% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 66.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 70.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Veleno
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Veleno
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (278)
50.5% (944)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
47.1% (297)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Veleno is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Veleno shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Veleno
Backlund
Home
49.6% (123)
48.1% (636)
Away
52.2% (184)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Veleno
Backlund
P1
54.1%
45.4%
P2
48.8%
54.1%
P3
52.6%
49.2%
OT
25.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
60.3%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
51.1%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |