Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 50.9% vs Paul 53.6% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 64.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 51.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Veleno
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Veleno
Paul
Last 7: Veleno 4-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Veleno
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (278)
53.7% (354)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
52.9% (34)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Veleno is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Veleno shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Veleno
Paul
Home
49.6% (123)
55.1% (216)
Away
52.2% (184)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Veleno
Paul
P1
54.1%
54.9%
P2
48.8%
54.5%
P3
52.6%
54.3%
OT
25.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
60.3%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
51.1%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |