Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Veleno wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs Paul 52.2% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 20-11 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Veleno 72.4%
Defensive zone
Veleno 75.5%
Neutral zone
Veleno 75.5%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 74.7%
74.7%
25.3%
Veleno
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
20
(31 meetings)
11
20
Veleno
Paul
Last 10: Veleno 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Veleno
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
8
Veleno
Paul
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
5
8
Veleno
Paul
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,317)
52.6% (3,823)
-5.3%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
56.2% (484)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
46.9% (576)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Veleno is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,623).
Veleno shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Veleno
Paul
Home
45.3% (1,136)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
48.6% (1,367)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Veleno
Paul
P1
47.9%
53.8%
P2
47.7%
51.0%
P3
45.9%
52.2%
OT
35.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.1%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:17 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:17 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Nick Paul |