Scouting Report
Joe Veleno holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Veleno wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs Buchnevich 36.0% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 56.1%
Defensive zone
Veleno 81.2%
Neutral zone
Veleno 73.4%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Veleno
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Veleno
Buchnevich
Last 7: Veleno 4-3 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
2
0
Veleno
Buchnevich
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
3
Veleno
Buchnevich
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
Buchnevich
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,317)
34.5% (931)
+12.8%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
44.2% (52)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
24.3% (37)
+12.1%
On even strength, Veleno has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Veleno is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,623).
Veleno shoots left. Buchnevich is 33.5% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Home / Away
Veleno
Buchnevich
Home
45.3% (1,136)
35.6% (517)
Away
48.6% (1,367)
33.6% (503)
By Period
Veleno
Buchnevich
P1
47.9%
35.2%
P2
47.7%
34.8%
P3
45.9%
33.4%
OT
35.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.1%
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
34.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:11 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:55 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 02:38 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:29 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |