Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Veleno wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs Lorentz 48.5% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Lorentz leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Veleno 50.5%
Defensive zone
Veleno 54.6%
Neutral zone
Veleno 54.0%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Veleno
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Veleno
Lorentz
Last 10: Veleno 3-7 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
3
Veleno
Lorentz
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
3
6
Veleno
Lorentz
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,317)
48.9% (1,125)
-1.6%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
50.0% (26)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
41.8% (91)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Veleno is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,623).
Veleno shoots left. Lorentz is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Veleno
Lorentz
Home
45.3% (1,136)
50.6% (609)
Away
48.6% (1,367)
46.3% (633)
By Period
Veleno
Lorentz
P1
47.9%
53.0%
P2
47.7%
46.7%
P3
45.9%
46.2%
OT
35.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.1%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2 | 09:15 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:27 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 10:20 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 18:45 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 16:44 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 18:26 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |