Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Veleno wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.4%
Defensive zone
Veleno 66.8%
Neutral zone
Veleno 57.8%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Veleno
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Veleno
Hertl
Last 10: Veleno 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
3
2
Veleno
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Veleno
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Veleno
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,317)
53.9% (8,303)
-6.6%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
59.2% (1,995)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
46.3% (806)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Veleno is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,623).
Veleno shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Veleno
Hertl
Home
45.3% (1,136)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.6% (1,367)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Veleno
Hertl
P1
47.9%
53.6%
P2
47.7%
54.2%
P3
45.9%
55.3%
OT
35.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:55 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 12:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |