Joel Eriksson Ek vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Ek wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 49.2% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 21-15 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.4%
Defensive zone
Ek 69.3%
Neutral zone
Ek 54.6%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Ek
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
21
(36 meetings)
15
21
Ek
MacKinnon
Last 10: Ek 2-8 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
8
Ek
MacKinnon
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
8
Ek
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
9
5
Ek
MacKinnon
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (858)
49.7% (1,038)
-1.6%
Power Play
53.3% (272)
63.7% (157)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (188)
34.4% (32)
+13.5%
On penalty kill, Ek has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ek is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (417).
Ek shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Ek
MacKinnon
Home
49.9% (693)
53.1% (618)
Away
48.3% (625)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Ek
MacKinnon
P1
47.4%
49.3%
P2
53.1%
53.0%
P3
46.3%
50.7%
OT
54.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
60.0%▲
52.0%
49.2%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:42 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 19:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |