Scouting Report
Joel Eriksson Ek holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ek wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 49.2% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 64.6%
Defensive zone
Ek 78.2%
Neutral zone
Ek 71.6%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Ek
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Ek
Cates
Last 10: Ek 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ek
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
2
1
Ek
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
2
1
Ek
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (858)
45.5% (756)
+2.6%
Power Play
53.3% (272)
42.1% (114)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (188)
44.7% (47)
+3.2%
On power play, Ek has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Ek is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Ek shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Ek
Cates
Home
49.9% (693)
46.2% (468)
Away
48.3% (625)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Ek
Cates
P1
47.4%
46.0%
P2
53.1%
47.5%
P3
46.3%
42.1%
OT
54.9%
18.2%
Final 5 min
44.6%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
60.0%▲
52.0%
49.2%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 01:55 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |