Joel Eriksson Ek vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joel Eriksson Ek holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ek wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 49.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 63.6%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 53.9%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 60.4%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 6: Ek 2-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
3
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (858)
46.0% (250)
+2.1%
Power Play
53.3% (272)
70.6% (17)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (188)
31.8% (22)
+16.1%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Ek is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Ek shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
49.9% (693)
50.3% (175)
Away
48.3% (625)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
47.4%
48.5%
P2
53.1%
45.9%
P3
46.3%
46.5%
OT
54.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.6%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
60.0%▲
52.0%
49.2%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |