Joel Eriksson Ek vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joel Eriksson Ek holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ek wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 49.4% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 54.8%
Defensive zone
Ek 50.1%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 55.0%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 6: Ek 2-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
3
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (671)
47.6% (189)
+0.1%
Power Play
54.9% (206)
100.0% (2)
-45.1%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (155)
29.4% (17)
+19.6%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +45.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Ek is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Ek shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Home / Away
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
50.3% (565)
48.5% (132)
Away
48.2% (467)
43.4% (76)
By Period
Ek
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
47.4%
51.4%
P2
54.3%
41.3%
P3
46.2%
48.5%
OT
51.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
48.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |