Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Farabee 47.7% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 51.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 52.9%
Neutral zone
Farabee 52.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Farabee
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Farabee
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Farabee
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Farabee
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (37)
49.7% (1,038)
-6.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
63.7% (157)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (10)
34.4% (32)
+5.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Farabee is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (18).
Farabee shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Farabee
MacKinnon
Home
38.1% (21)
53.1% (618)
Away
46.7% (30)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Farabee
MacKinnon
P1
56.5%
49.3%
P2
43.8%
53.0%
P3
16.7%
50.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Farabee
42.0%▲
38.5%
43.1%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |