Joel Farabee vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Farabee wins 34.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Farabee 37.7% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Farabee 79.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 71.3%
Neutral zone
Farabee 63.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Farabee
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Farabee
MacKinnon
Last 9: Farabee 3-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Farabee
1
0
Farabee
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Farabee
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Farabee
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Farabee
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
32.7% (312)
46.1% (11,264)
-13.4%
Power Play
46.4% (56)
53.2% (1,421)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
42.8% (502)
-10.8%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Farabee is 34.8% vs right-shot opponents (164).
Farabee shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Farabee
MacKinnon
Home
33.7% (178)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
35.3% (215)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Farabee
MacKinnon
P1
39.9%
47.4%
P2
32.8%
46.6%
P3
28.4%
46.1%
OT
0.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
35.9%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Farabee
42.0%▲
38.5%
34.6%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Joel Farabee |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Farabee |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Joel Farabee |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 12:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |