Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Tavares 56.7% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 86.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 77.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.7%
80.7%
19.3%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
14
(17 meetings)
3
14
Nelson
Tavares
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
7
Nelson
Tavares
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Tavares
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Nelson
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
57.7% (956)
-6.9%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
55.7% (244)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
52.2% (23)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
52.6% (639)
57.4% (636)
Away
48.9% (658)
57.1% (587)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
48.3%
57.1%
P2
54.0%
57.0%
P3
50.4%
57.6%
OT
41.2%
57.7%
Final 5 min
51.7%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 12:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |