Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Tavares 57.7% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 52.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.2%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 55.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Rodrigues
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Rodrigues
Tavares
Last 9: Rodrigues 4-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Rodrigues
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Rodrigues
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (250)
57.7% (998)
-12.1%
Power Play
40.0% (30)
60.5% (271)
-20.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
56.4% (39)
-6.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Rodrigues is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Rodrigues shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Tavares
Home
46.5% (142)
59.7% (610)
Away
43.6% (140)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Rodrigues
Tavares
P1
42.9%
57.2%
P2
50.0%
58.5%
P3
42.4%
59.4%
OT
50.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
45.5%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.0%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |