Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Stenlund 54.2% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 79.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 82.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 57.0%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Tavares
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Tavares
Stenlund
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
4
Tavares
Stenlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Stenlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
56.2% (650)
+1.5%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
53.2% (47)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
51.6% (312)
+0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stenlund
Home
57.4% (636)
56.9% (483)
Away
57.2% (612)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Tavares
Stenlund
P1
57.5%
54.2%
P2
56.9%
53.2%
P3
57.5%
56.9%
OT
57.1%
42.1%
Final 5 min
56.9%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |