Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.0%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Stenlund 53.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 25-15 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 78.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Tavares
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
15
(40 meetings)
25
15
Tavares
Stenlund
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
17
0
Tavares
Stenlund
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
12
Tavares
Stenlund
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
3
Tavares
Stenlund
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
55.3% (2,738)
-1.3%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
52.6% (116)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
50.4% (924)
+0.1%
On power play, Tavares has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stenlund
Home
56.1% (10,525)
54.3% (1,873)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
53.8% (1,905)
By Period
Tavares
Stenlund
P1
55.0%
56.2%
P2
54.1%
53.3%
P3
54.0%
53.0%
OT
55.9%
52.9%
Final 5 min
54.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |