Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Eller 55.0% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 81.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 55.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Tavares
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Tavares
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Tavares
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
56.0% (459)
+1.7%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
77.8% (9)
-21.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
51.9% (54)
+0.3%
On power play, Eller has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Tavares
Eller
Home
57.4% (636)
52.6% (215)
Away
57.2% (612)
58.3% (307)
By Period
Tavares
Eller
P1
57.5%
54.1%
P2
56.9%
57.6%
P3
57.5%
56.2%
Final 5 min
56.9%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 13:00 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:35 | Defensive | Lars Eller |