Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 60 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Eller 50.5% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 73-61 in 134 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.8%
Defensive zone
Eller 86.9%
Neutral zone
Eller 65.6%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 68.3%
31.7%
68.3%
Tavares
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
61
-
73
(134 meetings)
61
73
Tavares
Eller
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
29
10
Tavares
Eller
39 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
17
43
Tavares
Eller
60 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
15
20
Tavares
Eller
35 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
51.1% (10,321)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
52.8% (621)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
46.6% (1,759)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Home / Away
Tavares
Eller
Home
56.1% (10,525)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
Tavares
Eller
P1
55.0%
51.2%
P2
54.1%
50.1%
P3
54.0%
50.2%
OT
55.9%
56.7%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 13:00 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:35 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 19:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 10:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:51 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 08:52 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 14:08 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 1 | 17:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |