Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 61.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 52.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Tavares
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Tavares
Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Tavares
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Carlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
45.0% (695)
+12.7%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
46.4% (84)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
32.9% (85)
+19.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carlsson
Home
57.4% (636)
42.5% (435)
Away
57.2% (612)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Tavares
Carlsson
P1
57.5%
45.3%
P2
56.9%
38.7%
P3
57.5%
48.5%
OT
57.1%
41.7%
Final 5 min
56.9%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 12:28 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |