Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 96.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 87.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 94.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 92.2%
92.2%
7.8%
Tavares
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Tavares
Carlsson
Last 8: Tavares 7-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Carlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
40.9% (1,878)
+13.1%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
42.9% (156)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
34.7% (121)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carlsson
Home
56.1% (10,525)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Tavares
Carlsson
P1
55.0%
43.3%
P2
54.1%
36.2%
P3
54.0%
43.3%
OT
55.9%
40.7%
Final 5 min
54.7%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 12:28 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:59 | Neutral | John Tavares |