Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 65.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 53.8%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Tavares
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tavares
Scheifele
Last 6: Tavares 3-3 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
3
Tavares
Scheifele
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Scheifele
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
46.5% (919)
+11.2%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
48.7% (187)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
50.0% (54)
+2.2%
On even strength, Tavares has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Scheifele is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Home / Away
Tavares
Scheifele
Home
57.4% (636)
46.6% (605)
Away
57.2% (612)
47.4% (555)
By Period
Tavares
Scheifele
P1
57.5%
52.3%
P2
56.9%
45.3%
P3
57.5%
43.9%
OT
57.1%
27.3%
Final 5 min
56.9%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 06:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |