Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 65 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Scheifele 46.8% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 96-76 in 172 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 81.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 79.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Tavares
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
96
-
76
(172 meetings)
96
76
Tavares
Scheifele
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
38
32
Tavares
Scheifele
70 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
18
19
Tavares
Scheifele
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
40
25
Tavares
Scheifele
65 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
46.3% (12,077)
+7.7%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
50.2% (2,576)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
41.6% (598)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,862).
Home / Away
Tavares
Scheifele
Home
56.1% (10,525)
48.9% (7,678)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
44.7% (7,574)
By Period
Tavares
Scheifele
P1
55.0%
48.2%
P2
54.1%
45.6%
P3
54.0%
46.8%
OT
55.9%
42.5%
Final 5 min
54.7%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 06:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 09:04 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:41 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 17:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 17:36 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 14:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |