Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs McTavish 48.7% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 55.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Tavares
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Tavares
McTavish
Last 10: Tavares 3-7 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
2
Tavares
McTavish
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
2
Tavares
McTavish
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
4
Tavares
McTavish
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
48.2% (2,790)
+5.8%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
52.8% (436)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
34.3% (35)
+16.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. McTavish is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,158).
Home / Away
Tavares
McTavish
Home
56.1% (10,525)
49.8% (1,680)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
47.4% (1,581)
By Period
Tavares
McTavish
P1
55.0%
50.0%
P2
54.1%
47.7%
P3
54.0%
48.4%
OT
55.9%
43.5%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 15:07 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 14:08 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 11:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 12:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 15:22 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |