Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Duchene 51.8% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 55.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Tavares
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Tavares
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
51.1% (366)
+6.6%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
61.5% (65)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
16.7% (6)
+35.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +35.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Tavares
Duchene
Home
57.4% (636)
51.7% (201)
Away
57.2% (612)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Tavares
Duchene
P1
57.5%
49.0%
P2
56.9%
57.1%
P3
57.5%
49.2%
OT
57.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |