Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.2%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 31 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Duchene 54.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 48-33 in 81 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 54.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 63.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 55.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Tavares
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
48
(81 meetings)
33
48
Tavares
Duchene
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
9
22
Tavares
Duchene
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
13
Tavares
Duchene
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
14
13
Tavares
Duchene
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
53.9% (10,438)
+0.1%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
57.0% (1,677)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
49.1% (468)
+1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Home / Away
Tavares
Duchene
Home
56.1% (10,525)
55.6% (6,430)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
52.7% (6,177)
By Period
Tavares
Duchene
P1
55.0%
54.4%
P2
54.1%
54.5%
P3
54.0%
53.4%
OT
55.9%
56.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 09:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 14:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 15:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 02:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 2 | 03:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 2 | 08:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2019 | 3 | 08:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 06:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |