Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 54.9%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 79.2%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 58.2%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Tavares
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Tavares
Zibanejad
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Zibanejad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
4
Tavares
Zibanejad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Zibanejad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
53.3% (807)
+4.4%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
47.6% (42)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
46.3% (147)
+5.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Home / Away
Tavares
Zibanejad
Home
57.4% (636)
49.8% (466)
Away
57.2% (612)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Tavares
Zibanejad
P1
57.5%
52.9%
P2
56.9%
51.2%
P3
57.5%
51.7%
OT
57.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:28 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |