Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 69 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Zibanejad 50.0% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 93-89 in 182 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.9%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 60.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 52.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Tavares
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
93
-
89
(182 meetings)
93
89
Tavares
Zibanejad
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
47
22
Tavares
Zibanejad
69 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
19
43
Tavares
Zibanejad
62 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
27
24
Tavares
Zibanejad
51 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
50.9% (11,756)
+3.1%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
52.2% (1,852)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
41.6% (1,796)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,710).
Home / Away
Tavares
Zibanejad
Home
56.1% (10,525)
51.6% (7,603)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
48.3% (7,802)
By Period
Tavares
Zibanejad
P1
55.0%
50.4%
P2
54.1%
49.7%
P3
54.0%
49.9%
OT
55.9%
48.7%
Final 5 min
54.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:28 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |