Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Marner 42.5% (+17.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 59.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 72.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Tavares
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Marner
Last 5: Tavares 3-2 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Tavares
Marner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
40.8% (316)
+16.9%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
40.0% (5)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
25.0% (12)
+27.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Tavares
Marner
Home
57.4% (636)
36.0% (186)
Away
57.2% (612)
45.6% (147)
By Period
Tavares
Marner
P1
57.5%
40.7%
P2
56.9%
41.0%
P3
57.5%
38.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |