Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Marner 42.7% (+12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 70.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 58.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 68.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Tavares
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Tavares
Marner
Last 7: Tavares 4-3 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Marner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
1
Tavares
Marner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Tavares
Marner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
41.7% (496)
+12.3%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
55.6% (18)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
35.4% (65)
+15.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Tavares
Marner
Home
56.1% (10,525)
38.0% (321)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
45.7% (258)
By Period
Tavares
Marner
P1
55.0%
38.7%
P2
54.1%
41.5%
P3
54.0%
45.5%
OT
55.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 31, 2018 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |