Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.2% vs 57.0%). Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Frost 56.3% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 65.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 54.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Tavares
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Tavares
Frost
Last 6: Tavares 5-1 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
55.8% (745)
+1.9%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
60.5% (172)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
88.9% (9)
-36.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +36.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Tavares
Frost
Home
57.4% (636)
57.3% (497)
Away
57.1% (587)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Tavares
Frost
P1
57.1%
60.1%
P2
57.0%
56.0%
P3
57.6%
54.7%
OT
57.7%
63.6%
Final 5 min
56.6%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 12:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |