Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 14 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Frost 50.6% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 28-15 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 76.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 75.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 75.7%
75.7%
24.3%
Tavares
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
15
(43 meetings)
28
15
Tavares
Frost
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
5
7
Tavares
Frost
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
6
Tavares
Frost
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
12
2
Tavares
Frost
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
49.7% (3,652)
+4.3%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
55.4% (632)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
55.0% (40)
-4.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Tavares
Frost
Home
56.1% (10,525)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Tavares
Frost
P1
55.0%
51.2%
P2
54.1%
51.3%
P3
54.0%
48.8%
OT
55.9%
64.9%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 12:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 02:55 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 14:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:00 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |