Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Paul 53.6% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 52.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 68.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 54.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Tavares
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tavares
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Tavares
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
53.7% (354)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
59.0% (61)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
52.9% (34)
-0.7%
On even strength, Tavares has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Tavares
Paul
Home
57.4% (636)
55.1% (216)
Away
57.2% (612)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Tavares
Paul
P1
57.5%
54.9%
P2
56.9%
54.5%
P3
57.5%
54.3%
OT
57.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.9%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |