Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 34 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Paul 52.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 45-39 in 84 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 69.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 54.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Tavares
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
39
(84 meetings)
45
39
Tavares
Paul
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
23
11
Tavares
Paul
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
10
22
Tavares
Paul
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
12
6
Tavares
Paul
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
52.6% (3,823)
+1.4%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
56.2% (484)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
46.9% (576)
+3.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Tavares
Paul
Home
56.1% (10,525)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Tavares
Paul
P1
55.0%
53.8%
P2
54.1%
51.0%
P3
54.0%
52.2%
OT
55.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:05 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 14:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 00:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |