Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Zacha 51.8% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 16-9 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.7%
Defensive zone
Zacha 53.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 80.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Tavares
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
9
(25 meetings)
16
9
Tavares
Zacha
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
0
Tavares
Zacha
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
4
Tavares
Zacha
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
4
5
Tavares
Zacha
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
53.0% (700)
+4.7%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
54.1% (109)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
39.2% (74)
+13.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Tavares
Zacha
Home
57.4% (636)
51.6% (438)
Away
57.2% (612)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Tavares
Zacha
P1
57.5%
57.0%
P2
56.9%
48.9%
P3
57.5%
50.5%
OT
57.1%
42.1%
Final 5 min
56.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 08:08 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:08 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:46 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |